This Horse Race Ain’t Over ’til the Fat Lady Sings…

Posted: November 4, 2011 by thesundowner in Uncategorized

Over the past several weeks, I’ve had talks with several highly regarded political analysts, pollsters, pundits (professionals and amateurs alike) and others… including, but not limited to some members of this group. There seems to be a common thread in all the conversations that I’ve had with them, and it really doesn’t come as a surprise to me. Many have said that this is not a race between Romney vs. Perry or Romney vs. Cain: This is a race between Rick Perry and Herman Cain, with Newt Gingrich as a possible wild card.

I say “possible” in the case of Newt Gingrich on the condition that he can continue to stay in this fray with the money, and he doesn’t follow Cain and Perry’s modus operandi of Self Implosion. So far, he has done fairly well staying above the fray and recovering from whatever minor hiccups his campaign has had.

The Republican lineup seemed a bit boring at first until Perry came in and took the lead away from Willard: but it didn’t take long for his Texas Swagger to break off like a grass rake up the wrong orifice (if you know what I mean…)

Before Cain got himself embroiled in the Liberal Entrapment playbook stratagem of supposed “sexual harassment” he was doing fine. He probably would have continued to do well if he had let Old Dogs Lie and leave it alone. Poke a bear, and you’re going to get bit. If he keeps getting duped by the Rope-a-Dope from the Left, you’re probably going to wee Willard climbing back up in the polls. And… if he’s lucky enough to break through the 25% ceiling in national polls, he just might get his Entitlement Wish.

Herman Cain’s attack on Rick Perry is going to turn off a lot of people toward Perry–and Cain… if it hasn’t already. And, methinks it already has… that’s just my meandering thoughts. Cain’s campaign staff seems to think that if Cain goes down, he’s going to take out everybody not named Romney as well. Sort of like murder-suicide. It’s an ugly, sordid mess any way you look at it.

Let’s look at some implications and who could benefit from this horserace… or, at least, until the Fat Lady sings the last aria:

Michele Bachmann

Bachmann’s former campaign manager, Ed Rollins, says the congresswoman is out of money and out of ideas. I agree. She hasn’t changed her message or retooled herself. Her time is up. As much as I like her, she still needs a little schoolin’ in Politikin’ 101.

Herman Cain

Sorry to be the bearer of bad news on this one, but… Cain probably won’t recover from this: nor will he be the nominee. If you’re a Cain fan, don’t take this personal. It’s just the bitter pill of politics. His campaign staff has bungled this disaster so bad that I can hardly see him recovering from this. If he does, somehow, pull off a recovery, then he’ll be a much stronger nominee. But, I just don’t see it.

Given his campaign’s attack on Rick Perry and Mark Block (whether Perry and Block are guilty or not) the campaign has done nothing but let this wound fester. And if they don’t quit picking at this scab and let it “go away” the campaign is just going to get gangrene from it.

The women in this case were probably dredged up by the New York Times, and the MSM probably engineered the “leak” to make it look like it came from the Perry camp, but be that as it may, the women involved in this issue will probably speak one way or another… eventually.

When that happens, expect the proverbial crap to hit the fan, and watch all this nonsense move from blame to merit. Cain is already behind with women, so what does it matter? He’s not doing himself any favors by picking at this scab.

Newt Gingrich

Newt has already gone after Cain’s 9-9-9 plan, and done so pretty aggressively. They might do their Lincoln-Douglas debate in Texas, but I don’t think Odumbo will be man enough to show up. Everyone will take a second look at Newt — like they did before Donald Trump dropped out. Right now, Newt Gingrich probably stands the best chance of benefiting from the implosion from the Cain/Perry war.

Aside the fact that Newt is on his third wife, I don’t think it’s going to be as harmful to him as, say, a false charge of sexual harassment. Allegations of sexual harassment don’t have to be true in D.C. politics. They just have to be made. Hey, this is America, boys and girls! Get used to it!

The big question now is if Gingrich can maintain the financial momentum to survive until Nomination Day. Money may pose a problem… if he doesn’t have a sizeable war chest like Rick Perry — and Willard.

Jon Huntsman

Who is Jon Huntsman?

Ron Paul

Ron Paul is a joke. You might as well quit playing his piece in this board game. He won’t be the nominee. His son would probably have a better chance than himself, and he might as well just go back to work and save what little money he has left. He’s been a “has-been” every time his name came up, and will continue to be. Sorta reminds me of Ralph Nader…

Rick Perry

Herman Cain decision to engage in a murder-suicide with the Perry campaign will probably bring both of them down. As a matter of fact, I think (again) it already has…. Cain really believes Curt Anderson is to blame, but that doesn’t mean Anderson really is to blame. And it doesn’t matter at this point.

Cain torpedoed a lot of good will blaming Perry… but it still hurts Perry. Don’t get me wrong: I like both of them, because a lot of what they say “resonates”. But I’ve come short of endorsing anyone in this race for a multitude of reasons. There will be some Cain supporters who, when Herman’s campaign implodes, will
not go to Perry. They’ll go Gingrich or Romney.

And it probably won’t matter which way they go because Romney still has that Mormon issue to overcome: you know… the same one Papa George had, and the one Joseph Smith had…

…it’s just the nature of the beast.

(Historical note: the same thing happened to JFK about the RC church and the Pope… but he survived it — only to be martyred by those who would not rest until he had a permanent place in history…)

Ah… but that’s another story for some other time. I was only 10 years old when that happened, so it doesn’t matter here…

…only if you want to see the repeat of history and chalk it up as a learning experience.

Is this nuclear fallout going to be fatal to Perry? Who knows… it could be. But, then again, he may have learned a hard lesson and swallowed some of his braggadocio and Texas Swagger for some Humble Crow Pie. He has a lot of money in his war chest, as do the Super PAC’s who are helping him. And, with that, he may be able to resuscitate himself and pull this off.

But — and this is a mighty big but — Perry only has a limited window of time to reassure voters of both his drive and, more importantly, his competence. He’ll need to pull off some good debate performances. So far, he hasn’t done too well in the Sleeping Episodes of the debates, and he’s come across as having been hampered by anti-depressants.

Going from losing a debate to needing a solid debate win is pure speculation and hyperbole, even if graded on the low end of a curve…

If it sounds like I’m being critical of “my boy” — well… yes, I am. But that’s just the way we call them down here in Texas. I like Governor Perry, whether I disagree with him on a lot of issues or not.

As to this being a Cain versus Perry race, consider that only Cain and Perry right now have enough money to compete with Romney. Newt may be able to… in the present or near future. Newt is a “wild card” — so, time will only tell.

The “cash on hand” goes to Cain and Perry: but with Cain going after Perry with this scandal chasing Cain, it hurts them both. If the Perry campaign staff can get
their collective asses (and their heads) around what’s happening — and do it quickly — they just might be able to “right the ship” and gain some momentum headed into the holidays. But, they’re going to have to start spending some big money, and do it fast.

Mitt Romney

Willard is playing this one safe (and smart). Contrast Herman Cain and Rick Perry’s handling of this bouleversement with Mitt’s handling of it: Stone Cold Silence.

There’s no reason for Willard to do anything when Herman Cain is busy shooting himself in the foot — and taking out Rick Perry in the process.

Seventy-five percent of the Conservative branch of the RNC wants someone other than Romney and at this rate Romney may very well end up the nominee anyway. I know that prospect might be pleasing to the Twenty-Five Percenters, but it will make him a weaker candidate in the general election against one of
the most corrupt regimes we’ve ever seen in the history of our country. Combine Willie’s historical flip-flops with all the other heat that this party has generated and it sort of defeats the idea that this is the Republicans’ race to lose.

Republicans need to get out of this defensive mode of thinking and go on the attack, and attack Odumbo… not each other. Football games aren’t won on defense: only when you’re carrying the ball in the offensive mode do you make touchdowns. And right now, I don’t see any football players on the Republican team…

…except, maybe — [fill in the blank].

Cain and Perry are probably (pretty much) history as far as this race is concerned. Cain staying in the race isn’t going to appear very intelligent at this point, not with the bleeding from a sexual harassment scandal. Unless he can come out swinging like Clarence Thomas and kick some political ass, Cain is going to find it difficult to consolidate his base and come from behind as a strong anti-Romney candidate.

The odds of Romney being the nominee grow daily. If, however, this Cain business resolves itself quickly (which I highly doubt), Romney might see the race consolidate against him. And then there’s Perry and Newt, so… it’s still a toss-up.

Rick Santorum



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